DENVER — The Denver Broncos are the owners of the NFL’s longest active winning streak after their fourth consecutive win snapped a five-game heater for the Minnesota Vikings in prime time Sunday at Empower Field.
At 5-5, could this team – which started 0-3 and allowed 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 – realistically make the playoffs?
Only four out of 158 teams (2.5%) to start 0-3 in the last three decades have done it.
The Broncos, however, sit in a crowded middle of the pack in the AFC playoff picture. After 11 weeks, the Broncos are the No. 10 seed in their conference, with the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills between them and the seventh and final playoff spot.
According to this handy NFL playoff simulator by The New York Times, the Broncos’ odds sit at 21% even after a fourth straight victory. But the next two weeks will tell us a lot about their postseason chances.
In Week 12, the Broncos play the Cleveland Browns, who at 7-3 would be in the playoffs as the No. 5 seed if the season ended Nov. 19. A win against Cleveland – which is without quarterback Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the season – would move Denver’s playoff odds to 30%, independent of other outcomes.
Couple that with a win in Week 13 over the Houston Texans – the No. 6 seed in the AFC at 6-4 after Week 11 – and the Broncos’ odds to make the playoffs jump to 51%.
A split of those two games keeps the Broncos’ odds at around 20%, while losing both would give them a bleak 3% chance of getting in.
This author highly recommends any Broncos fan play around with the simulator, which includes every NFL game for the rest of the season.
Toying only with the Broncos’ remaining outcomes, though, shows they likely need to get to 10 wins one way or another in order to make the playoffs. If one of those 10 wins comes against Houston in Week 13, the odds are pushed to greater than 80% that Denver gets in. Ten wins with a loss to Houston puts the odds around 75%.
A 9-8 record of any kind likely plunges the chances of a Broncos postseason appearance below 20%, according to several scenarios plugged into the simulator.
The Broncos’ remaining schedule, with opponent records as of the end of Week 11, at a glance:
- Week 12: vs. Browns (7-3)
- Week 13: @ Texans (6-4)
- Week 14: @ Chargers (4-6)
- Week 15: @ Lions (8-2)
- Week 16: vs. Patriots (2-9)
- Week 17: vs. Chargers (4-6)
- Week 18: @ Raiders (5-6)
